United States: What Is the Demographic Outlook?

Since the late 1990s, fertility in the United States has been higher than in the rest of the Western world, and immigration has been sustained. These favorable demographic trends have been described by American demographer Nicholas Eberstadt as “American demographic exceptionalism”. [1] However, since the 2010s, hasn’t this American demographic exceptionalism come to an end? [2] Isn’t fertility in the United States declining like in Europe? [3] Will immigration, after rising vigorously in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic trough, [4] be curtailed? Will the U.S. demographic trajectory be one of increasing population or, conversely, depopulation?